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• The speaker emphasizes the importance of honest probabilities and dollars in assessing risk.
• There are numerous software projects, creating a sparsity problem for expert opinions.
• Automated tools like the Criticality Score and Harvard Census can help identify high-risk projects, but they have limitations.
• Human input is necessary to fill in gaps in data and provide context, but experts may have biases and limited knowledge.
• Prediction markets can be a useful tool for eliciting expert opinions, but they require high liquidity to be effective.